It is an open question how May Day 2015 will be remembered. This year the struggle for Cosatu was played out in several separate and competing rallies and marches. It was clearly impressive that Numsa and some of its allies were able to mobilise a march that police estimate was 10 000 strong. Doing so in the ANC’s Durban power-base in “competition” with Cosatu’s main event that hosted President Zuma says much about the appeal of Vavi and Numsa.

Cosatu splits

These separate May Day events have now accelerated the split of SA’s largest and most important social movement.

Both sides claim to be fighting for the unity of Cosatu, but a split and the formation of a new federation are the most probable outcomes of Cosatu’s deepening crisis. A new trade union federation with mass support would transform the political situation. Already, the ANC is struggling to stave off the challenge of Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters. A new federation might strengthen current moves toward forming a “Movement for Socialism” and provide a credible mass-based alternative to the ANC and SACP.

Intensifying divisions

Re-establishing the unity of Cosatu would need a massive climb-down by one of the competing factions. Part of the conflict lies with Cosatu’s alliance with the ANC, but the ANC’s attempts at brokering unity have been unsuccessful. According to a recent ANC NEC document, Cosatu has “ignored its recommendations.”

Having managed to achieve a “palace coup” in the Cosatu central executive committee (CEC), something not possible at the 2012 Cosatu Congress, Dlamini and his SACP will not easily give up control of the federation. This is why they resisted the calling of a special national congress, as was constitutionally required after a third of Cosatu’s affiliates formally made this demand.

After Numsa’s and Vavi’s expulsion and the purging of opposition in several affiliates, Cosatu office bearers can contemplate the holding of a special national congress, feeling secure that they will have the numbers to stave off “regime change”.

Several court cases are unlikely to change the situation.

What may be won in the court will be thwarted by the bureaucratic control of the Dlamini faction. Vavi was reinstated but he was a lame duck until the CEC could dismiss him after they had minimised legal risks. If the court finds in Numsa’s favour regarding its expulsion, it would be appealed by the CEC and any procedural deficiency carefully rectified. There is little likelihood that Numsa will attend any Cosatu congress. Without Numsa, there is little prospect that Dlamini and other office bearers will be dislodged.

The court challenges only give those opposed to the Cosatu office bearers more time to consolidate their alliance and shift the balance of forces on the “ground”.

To this end Vavi has been meeting with shop stewards around the country, mobilising under the banner “Don’t mourn, organise!” The intention is to build momentum for a Workers Summit. Dlamini issued a warning threatening disciplinary action, but no action has been taken against Cosatu affiliates that have given Vavi platforms and participated in press conferences condemning the current Cosatu leadership.

Instead the Cosatu leadership is putting pressure on the rebel unions by going to their base and making sure that the leadership know their unions will split if they support initiatives to form a new federation or support Numsa’s political initiatives, such as the United Front or Movement for Socialism.

And this is having some impact. There were nine rebel unions but there are now eight if one includes the expelled Numsa. The national office bearers of Samwu (municipal workers) left the Numsa-Vavi alliance when Vavi supported Samwu activists campaigning for an investigation into the misappropriation of R130 million.

Denosa (the nurses’ union) was one of the rebel unions. Its congress passed resolutions supporting the boycotting of CEC meetings, but their leadership has participated in recent Cosatu CEC meetings and has been absent from rebel caucus meetings and mobilising initiatives. The Denosa leadership is strongly opposed a new federation and Numsa’s anti-alliance stance.

Dlamini is also attempting to use the financial crisis of Saccawu (commercial and catering union) which is facing bankruptcy, to win them back into the Cosatu fold.

Some of the remaining unions in the Numsa-Vavi camp are very small. The Football Players’ union has less than 1 000 members. Public sector unions Sasawu and Pawusa have less than 10 000 members and are losing members to a new public sector union led by expelled Sadtu president Ntola, situated in the Numsa-Vavi camp. Fawu has already taken “disciplinary action” to contain factions in the union not happy with Fawu’s pro-Numsa orientation.

This reflects the political fragility of the Vavi Numsa alliance. What initially brought them together was support for Vavi in the Cosatu CEC and the struggle against Cosatu becoming the ANC’s labour desk. They were united around the call for a Cosatu special national congress.  Now that this has been finalised by a court order, Cosatu rebels already take different views on the boycott of Cosatu meetings.

What would be achieved by participating in Cosatu meetings and the special national congress without Vavi and without Numsa? Dlamini says that there will be no elections for a new leadership. Yet the contestation of the leadership is at the centre of the Cosatu crisis. In other words, the special national congress of Cosatu will not resolve the crisis and the issue of building a new federation will remain on the agenda.

Towards a new federation?

Forming a new federation will not be easy. A lot will depend on grass roots support for the proposed Workers Summit. Untapped support for the Numsa-Vavi platform exists amongst the rank and file of Cosatu and across the labour movement.   

Expelled and suspended leaders of Samwu have regrouped themselves as Save Our Samwu. It remains to be seen how much rank-and-file support they can organise, but they are likely to link themselves to the Numsa-Vavi platform and operate as a break-away union. They may even be forced to link up with Ntola’s SAPSU and constitute the local government sector of a broad public sector union.

The chemical workers union, Ceppawu, is facing a major split. The union has not held a single national executive committee, finance committee meeting or national congress since 2011. The department of labour wants to place the union under administration. Several regions claiming to represent the majority support this. The general secretary and president are accused of running the union like a “spaza” shop. It is likely that once Ceppawu comes under worker control it will attach itself to the Numsa-Vavi alliance.

The recent assassination of the transport union, Satawu’s Gauteng secretary, Chris Nkosi, is largely believed to be a result of internal divisions. The leadership of the union faces widespread allegations of corruption. Satawu’s general secretary was arrested in 2013 for fraud and theft involving almost R20 million. Hundreds of Satawu members have fled the union and joined Numsa. The union likely to split into several fragments, many of which will seek support outside of the Cosatu fold.

The finance workers’ union, Sasbo is also rumoured to be facing a split with the majority of regions favouring a closer relationship with the Vavi-Numsa camp.

Even in Cosatu’s strongest public sector unions things are uncertain. The leadership of Sadtu (the teachers union) has dissolved its rebellious Eastern Cape structure, which could push thousands of Eastern Cape teachers into the South African Public Sector Union of Ntola. NUM (mineworkers) will soon hold its national congress. Several regions are in dispute with the current leadership and may throw their lot in with a Vavi-initiated trade union federation.

And of course there is Amcu, which has displaced NUM’s dominance in the platinum belt and grown in the gold sector. Amcu is currently an affiliate of the National Council of Trade Unions (Nactu), a black consciousness-oriented federation with strong PAC leanings, has supported a new trade union federation. A sizeable part of Nactu may be willing to link up with such efforts. They may be joined by several independent trade unions and the relatively small Confederation of South African Workers Union (Consawu). Even Fedusa may support a new federation to rival Cosatu, if it can be guaranteed that it will remain politically non-aligned.

No easy road ahead

Whether such a conglomeration of unions, fragments and splits could constitute a coherent federation that could take the best traditions of Cosatu forward is another question. Much soul searching is needed if we are to understand where things went wrong with the trade union movement after the end of apartheid. More importantly, practices that currently bedevil the trade union movement, such as corruption, lack of democracy and worker control must be confronted.

There are also a host of other issues that a new trade union movement would have to confront if it is to play an important role in rebuilding workers power. Not least would be organising the more than 70% of workers who remain unorganised. A new trade union movement would also need to develop strategies of social unionism that makes it relevant to the growing precariat and the unemployed.

These are huge challenges. This would have to be undertaken in opposition to a Cosatu that will have the support of the still powerful, if weakened ANC alliance and a hostile neoliberal state under pressure to recreate the conditions for profitable investment for globalised capital.