2024 has been the ultimate election year. By the end of this year, more voters than ever in recorded history will head to the polls in at least 64 countries. Over half of the world’s population will be involved. In just the last three months alone, pivotal elections have taken place in India, South Africa, Mexico, the United Kingdom, France, and the European Parliament.

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, which put liberal democracy on trial and precipitated a wave of right-wing populism worldwide, it has been easy to treat the rise of authoritarian politics as inevitable. Meanwhile mass politics on the Left has declined. However, the surprising backslide of the right in some places complicates that thesis.

India

In India, Narendra Modi secured a third term as India’s prime minister in a closely contested election which took place between 19 April and 1 June. His National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 293 seats in the Lok Sabha, despite a reduced majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The opposition Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (India) gained 234 seats, indicating a strengthened position. Modi’s personal victory margin also decreased significantly, reflecting a decline in his electoral dominance. The election took place amidst a severe socioeconomic crisis, with high unemployment and inflation rates.

The government’s focus on a high GDP growth rate, and the goal of achieving a $5 trillion economy by 2028, did not address the lack of employment generation, particularly in labour-intensive industries. This has led to stagnant employment growth and increased inequality, with India having a large number of billionaires alongside a substantial population reliant on free food grains for survival. Politically, the election result reflects a weakening of Modi’s position, with the BJP needing support from regional parties to form the government.

The opposition has been emboldened, challenging the BJP’s policies and the erosion of democratic institutions, including the imprisonment of activists and the suppression of dissent. The BJP’s election strategy, which relied on nationalist fervour and Modi’s personal appeal, was less effective this time. The opposition successfully challenged Modi’s image and campaign spending. The election outcome suggests a shift in public sentiment against the BJP, possibly due to anti-incumbency, economic hardships, and opposition to the government’s unpopular measures.

The BJP’s losses in states like Uttar Pradesh and the impact of mass movements against government policies, such as the farmers’ protests, indicate a growing discontent. Despite the BJP’s reduced majority, the party remains a potent force with the potential to recover from setbacks. The Indian Left, though, has not emerged as a significant player in the current political landscape. The election result, while not a resounding victory for the opposition, offers a glimmer of hope for India’s left and social movements, as a weakened government may present new opportunities for progressive change.

Mexico

In her victory speech, the newly elected President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, paid homage to the social movements that have shaped Mexico’s history, from labour activists to student leaders, teachers, and farmers, and the pivotal roles played by women.

The most hopeful of all three cases is no doubt Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum’s resounding victory in the country’s June 2 presidential election marks a historic moment for the nation and a significant milestone for the National Regeneration party, or Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena for short). She emerged triumphant, with a decisive 30 point lead over her conservative challenger, Xóchitl Gálvez, garnering 58.3 percent of the popular vote. This victory not only solidifies Morena’s position as a dominant force in Mexican politics. It also sets the stage for a potential shift in the legislative landscape, with the party and its allies on track to secure a substantial majority in both houses of Congress.

Sheinbaum’s campaign was a testament to her scientific background, characterised by a disciplined and methodical approach. She conducted an extensive series of rallies, nearly three times as many as her opponent and unveiled a comprehensive policy platform that included the expansion of social programmes, education initiatives, healthcare reforms, affordable housing, infrastructure development, and a public sector-led energy transition. Her steadfast focus on policy and her refusal to be swayed by personal attacks or negative campaigning tactics underscored her commitment to the issues that mattered most to the electorate. She faced a coordinated international media campaign that sought to tarnish the reputation of Amlo and Morena with baseless accusations of cartel collusion. But despite this, Sheinbaum’s victory stands as a testament to the resilience of the party and the support it enjoys among the Mexican populace. Her win reflects a broader realignment of party dynamics, with working-class voters increasingly gravitating towards Morena, reinforcing the party’s cross-class coalition.

In her victory speech, Sheinbaum paid homage to the social movements that have shaped Mexico’s history, from labour activists to student leaders, teachers, and farmers, and the pivotal roles played by women. She positioned herself as a continuation of Mexico’s Fourth Transformation, a movement that she vowed to carry forward as the country’s first female president. Her electoral mandate is formidable, and she is set to assume the presidency on October 1, ushering in a new era of leadership for Mexico.

A lesson for the Left

In India, right-wing populism is in retreat (in South Africa, it might be getting its wings). There is a lesson to learn from Mexico, a country similarly riven by cross-cutting social cleavages and where the hegemonic revolutionary nationalist party—in this case, Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI—lost power. In South Africa and India, the independent Left has been paralysed by the question of whether starting a new left-wing party is feasible in countries marked by political fragmentation. Morena—which registered as a political party in 2014 and won its first election in 2018—is proof that it’s worth taking our chances.

France

Leaders of left-wing La France Insoumise celebrate the historic victory of the Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front), an alliance hastily formed less than a month before the elections, which prevented a victory for the right-wing Rassemblement National of Marine le Pen.

In the West, France also offers reason to be cautiously optimistic. The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance, secured a historic victory in the snap parliamentary elections, becoming the largest bloc in the National Assembly, with 182 seats. This outcome was a significant upset, as it was widely expected that Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) would win. The NFP’s victory was a result of a hastily formed alliance less than a month before the elections, which included various left-wing parties such as France Insoumise, the Parti Socialiste, Les Ecologistes, and the Parti Communiste Français.

The NFP’s platform focuses on social change, including the repeal of President Emmanuel Macron’s retirement reform, wealth redistribution, investment in public services, and recognition of Palestinian statehood. The alliance’s success has led to a hung parliament, with the NFP, Macron’s centrist bloc, and the RN-dominated right-wing pole each holding a significant number of seats. This situation could lead to a period of intense parliamentary instability.  The NFP’s victory was celebrated by left-wing voters and progressives across France, with many expressing relief and jubilation at the outcome.

In contrast, the RN and its supporters were disappointed, with Le Pen predicting a year of parliamentary chaos that she believes will strengthen the far right. The balance of power in the new parliament is complex, with the NFP needing to navigate a right-leaning chamber and a centre-right-dominated Senate. The alliance will have to propose a prime ministerial candidate who can defend their programme while facing the risk of no-confidence votes from the opposition. The leading forces within the NFP, France Insoumise and the Parti Socialiste, have slightly shifted the balance in favour of the latter.

Macron, who dissolved the National Assembly in June, now faces the possibility of a ‘cohabitation’ government with an opposition cabinet. He has shown a willingness to bide his time and seek opportunities to divide the left-wing alliance. The process of forming a new government could take several weeks, with negotiations and manoeuvres expected to be challenging.

United Kingdom

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer celebrates a landslide victory and a massive majority in the House of Commons, with only 34% of the vote. In the face of overwhelming decline in public services, its fiscal conservatism pledge is in effect a commitment to continued austerity, with the usual consequences for the working class and the poor.

Across the channel in the United Kingdom, there is also reason to celebrate the defeat of 14 years of Conservative Party (Tories) governance. The Tories’ tenure was characterised by austerity measures that damaged public services, increased poverty, and exacerbated social divisions, fanned by promoting ‘culture war’ talking points.

The election results indicate a strong desire for change among voters, with the top concerns being the cost of living, health, and the economy. Despite the Tories’ defeat, their legacy persists, including the rise of the far right, as evidenced by the far-right Reform Party’s electoral success. The Labour Party won a landslide with only 34% of the vote and faces challenges from the Reform Party, the Greens, and Independent candidates, reflecting a fragmented political landscape.

Under Keir Starmer’s fence-sitting “pro-business and pro-worker” platform, the Labour Party is a shadow of its former self. Having purged principled socialist leaders—most prominently Jeremy Corbyn, who is back in the House of Commons as an independent—it has entered 10 Downing Street pledging fiscal conservatism to appease capital while committing to being a lieutenant to the United States and its hawkish foreign policy. In the face of overwhelming decline in public services, its fiscal conservatism pledge is in effect a commitment to continued austerity, with the usual consequences for the working class and the poor.

United States

Naturally, perhaps the most important election for the world this year takes place in November. All eyes will be on who wins the keys to Washington. Following a disastrous performance in the first presidential debate, Democratic Party insiders are scrambling to persuade Joe Biden to step down in favour of someone more cognitively competent. Almost every poll projects Donald Trump beating Biden in a head to head. Whether another candidate—like Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom—would fare any better, remains unclear.

Whatever the outcome, the US political establishment remains in lockstep on foreign policy: committed to being strong allies of apartheid and genocidal Israel while ramping up confrontation with China. Even so, there is a world of difference between Republicans, who, for example, are spearheading a punitive review of bilateral relations with South Africa (after our efforts to hold Israel accountable at the ICJ and ICC), and Democrats, who tolerate some pluralism in international relations.

A Trump White House will embolden right-wing forces globally, not least in its backyard, in places like Javier Milei’s Argentina or Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador. That Trump’s presidential agenda simultaneously pledges to “PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST [sic]” and “DEPORT PRO-HAMAS RADICALS AND MAKE OUR COLLEGE CAMPUSES SAFE AND PATRIOTIC AGAIN [sic]” is every indication needed that Trump will replace the ‘peace’ of the hypocritical liberal international order with an illiberal one, where force and might supersede basic international law and human rights.

Beyond identity to class

The stakes could not be higher. Rather than view right-wing politics as something that rises and falls, we should treat it as a permanent current in the political field. The liberal order continues to crumble and capitalism continues to stagnate. So it is not surprising that those committed to some version of the status quo will mobilise support by offering fortification of a shrinking pie (against the ‘wrong kind’ of people, however defined). At the core of the ongoing rise of far-right populists sits their claim to be on the side of the people, against the corrupt elites. Yet, most of the time, they are an ‘anti-elite elite’, representing lumpen factions of capital, like domestic capitalists or small businesses, against international finance capital. The gambit can only work for so long.

The lesson for the Left is that we can offer something better. We can move beyond identitarian questions of who belongs, to asking what kind of society we want to live in. We can move beyond doling out ever-shrinking pieces of the pie, and focus attention on who controls it. As right wing and centrist forces move to further obscure class from political conflict, the task of the Left is to keep it in view. No war but class war.

Will Shoki is editor of Africa is a Country, and a member of the Amandla! Collective.